Monday, April 6, 2009

No change in outlook - bias to the long side remains

Impressive rally from mid-day on. I will be looking for a follow through tomorrow. Amazing how market is setting aside all "bad" news. Look at the logic: When IBM was buying SUN, both were up because it would be so good for IBM. Now, when IBM is not buying SUN, they are cheering that IBM will not be saddled with SUN. Wow! Which is right? These are the irrational behaviors that markets are made up of. When the market "wants" to go up nothing can stop it. It will see good in all news, bad or good. Bulls are definitely not exhausted although volume was not impressive today. Buying will not stop till bulls get tired of moving the market up. The bears are stuck because the downside is so limited due to FED "guaranteeing" no loss on bonds until some really really bad news of the forward indicators such as durable goods orders start to deteriorate. But those indicators are not getting worse. So, PARTY ON, GARTH! I am very tempted to put 1/4 of my position on the long side. But I must wait for now. Probably short on 850 and long on 810 on sp500 is working for some folks. But that is too narrow a range to play for everyone except for the day traders. Not recommended. My guess is that this new leg up coming up tomorrow may take up close to 900. But I am not sure about the probability of that happening and that is why I would stay on the sidelines. In my opinion, a good trade will be to put a limit buy order for sp860 and then ride to sp900. However, there is too much danger of being whipsawed. Sometimes I use 2day/13day MA crossing, I kind of missed that this time. If the market pulls back then I might try to get back in when 2day again crossed the 13-day. Patience is the name of the game now.

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