Thursday, May 7, 2009

Not a good trading day in FAS/FAZ pair

I missed the big move in FAZ in the morning and spent the rest of the day fighting the tape with 21 trades, two of which were made by mistake on the order entry ticket. (Hey with that many trades you are bound to have a mixup. I want a system that has no more than 6 trades, and has >50% of what I catch here.)

Trade # 1s (sell): Mistake from yesterday unclosed FAS gave a surprise bonus to start the day with +0.55. Without this surprise I would have 1/2 the gain that I got today trading the market.
Trade # 2b/s (buy and sell): FAZ gave a puny +0.04. (I have got to learn to take profits in this method. I let a huge run disappear watching for the signal to show up.)
#3b/s: FAS gave -0.13. (I had to cover in a hurry to prevent more loss.)
#4b/s: FAZ gave +0.05. (Same happen again!)
#5b/s: FAS gave -0.07. (Decided that I am not going to play FAS today since overall market was bearish.)
#6b/s: FAZ with a tiny loss -0.03.
#7b/s: FAZ with another tiny gain 0.05.
#8b/s: FAZ with a really good midday rally +0.19. (Could have been >0.3 but I let the tape run down till it gave me a signal.)
#9b/s: FAZ with another small gain 0.075.
#10b/s: Made a mistake in placing buy order on FAZ, it should have been 5.92, instead I placed it on 5.85. I had to manually stop the loss at 5.70. Lost -0.15 points.
#11b/s: Tried to go back to FAS - a BIG MISTAKE - violated my earlier decision not to touch FAS today. Lost -0.13.

I played with 10 shares of FAZ for ever 3 shares of FAS to have the bearish bias of the day in addition to my deciding to stop playing with FAS altogether. The ratio of 10:3 FAZ/FAS made the money difference of approximately 3:5 since FAZ was around 5 and FAS around 10, which is a good idea when you are betting, i.e placing bets on the side expected to have higher win rate (poker anyone?). Therefore, today's haul was 3*0.22 + 10*0.225 = 2.91 units. I was playing with 1000 share units, so my take was $2,910. I am fully out today. Hey, not bad for a day's work. But it was really terribly frustrating and intense. Definitely not for the faint of heart. I also made some changes to my method.

1. Slow stochastics to get the signal to enter the market. But that was not very helpful today, so I used resistance on FAZ to place an order on the breakout to re-enter the market on FAZ. But there was no other resistance nearby to place an exit order. So I lost at least 0.2 points on FAZ exiting too late. There was a support on FAZ which I used once to limit my loss once I found my error in entering FAZ at 5.85 instead of 5.92, which would have been safely above a resistance at 5.84. I better relearn the Fibbonaci stuff, which will at least give some expectation from each move. Right now I don't have any expectations and I have to watch the market and charts and at the same time fight myself (like try to be fearful of losing the gains and greedy for getting a better price of entry - just the opposite of what you are supposed to feel.)

2. Exit was decided on the overall picture gained from looking at momentum, MACD and volume. Did not work out, since my return is definitely worse than yesterday's. Then I went to look at really more or less non-trending market after the initial push on FAZ. I found good support and resistances and used them to enter on breakout on FAZ and to limit loss.

I am going to do some more studies tonight. I definitely need a less strenuous system. I had to look at the screen practically all day again. I want to have a system where I can place some entry and exit orders and then forget the market for hours. Also I need another measure of how many points is enough for taking profits. I was watching the market and I noticed that after a rally of 1/2 hour or so the market takes a breather. Probably the average range of the sizes of these rallies will be the best indicator of the amount of profit to expect with each intra-day rally. Got to figure this out before tomorrow.

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