Wednesday, May 27, 2009

On vacation from trading till June 2

I am taking few days off. Good luck trading. The market sentiment is now turning negative but global economy appears to be recovering. See nice analysis of current state of affairs in the economy: http://scottgrannis.blogspot.com/2009/05/green-shoots-turn-red-hot.html. So, be careful out there. If the market corrects then I will be out there with a boatload of high dividend paying international companies to buy. If I can get 10% on the dividend from solid companies, whose dividends have been safe over decades, then who needs more and who cares where the stock prices go? That's a really good return on my equity. Over the next six months buying sharp sell-offs will be profitable. Probably 820 on sp500 will prove to be difficult to crack. Only when economy shows further weakening that buying on sell-offs will stop working and we may go down and stay down for a long time. But I don't believe that this coming sell off will be that kind of irreversible event since the economy is flooded with so much liquidity. With that much liquidity, the value of cash relative to other goods is bound to go down, i.e. share prices and commodity prices ought to go up. For the purpose of the portfolio in the blog here, I will keep the strategy intact - buy 1/3 SDS when we crack 875 and then buy the last 1/3 when we crack 850. And then, sell the position at 820. I don't think we are going to go much further than that in the coming sell off.
Sami.

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