Monday, March 9, 2009

Bulls fail again

Today's action speaks volumes about the weakness in the conviction of bulls. The bulls had succeeded early in the day but could not hold gains without any follow through of the last minute rush on Friday. Everyone seems to be looking far lower than 666 level. Based on the earnings anticipated in sp500 you could envision it trading in 550 area, but that may be too scary a scenario. I think bulls will put real fight first at 650 and then at 600. Probably it is neither safe nor desirable to squeeze all the down points. The risk for bears is increasing each day. For now the risk to reward is on the bear side for 30 more easy points which is about 15%. Therefore I will be putting back my cash to work from the short side tomorrow. The low volume on sp500 I was expecting did not materialize and government actions are not making impact on the psyche of the market. That makes me not take spending bill seriously. The consumer is simply too scared.

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