Thursday, March 19, 2009

Time to reduce long position by 1/2 and wait


My analysis of 50-day moving average, stochastics, support and resistance, and level of resistance as indicated by volume of trading of sp500 trading index leaves me concerned compared to yesterday.
Yesterday the Fed action was so stimulative that I had thought that the market will easily clear 50-day moving average, but it failed. The stochastics are clearly overbought in the short term although I don't pay much credit to stochastics. Its just one more data for me, not something I can use to trade. Due to these factors I will be selling off 1/2 of my position in SSO and then leave the rest with the stop loss order. IF SP500 MAKES THROUGH 50-DAY MOVING AFERAGE then I will get back in fully otherwise I am now on cautious side protecting some of the gains. One can never be 100% sure what the market will do, we just play the odds. The odds are that market will stil go higher and in the intermediate term trade between 800 and 950 for SP500. But if Geitner is forced out by Dodd and company, then it will be a real game changer. Dodd will try to save his skin since he will be facing a really tough reelection challenge based on what is happening with regard to the AIG fiasco. My God, why dodn't they liquidate the company? They just wanted to steak money from taxpayers to hand it to Goldman Sachs, etc. through AIG. That's such a blatant robbery of the treasury that somebody should be hanged for such high crimes. Be prespared to act on the news if that comes about, first on the short side (even if you dont catch initial 5% move still it would be worth it) and then ready to get on the long side You wouldn't get a lot of time to benefit from this kind of news.

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