Wednesday, March 25, 2009

Once again fully on the long side

The 50-day MA held on again - very very bullish sign. Actually the market came roaring back from the 50-day MA support. Probably automatic technical buy orders got the recovery today- they were very large orders when you look at the volume and sharpness of the late day recovery rally. I will keep the sell order in place even though I do not think it is needed any more till we reach 900 on sp500 or so. You never know what news lie ahead. Thats why you need to keep a downside protection. My protection is not good in the event of a large gap down. For that kind of protection I need to use options. Options are insurance policies - they cost money to have in your portfolio just in case you need to use them if the market gaps up or gaps down too much and kicks you out of the market at the open without any chance of getting back during the day. Right now my portfolio is susceptible to a big bad down day. Suppose some terrible news comes out at night, then I cannot get out the next morning. It may be that the market goes down steadily from there on and I don't get a chance to get out of the market in time. Even the minimal loss will be too much. Another scenario that is unacceptable to me is that news depresses the market below my stop loss order and I get kicked out of the market at the open, but then the market recovers during the day when I am at work and when I return at night I find myself out of the market with a huge loss although market may have actually gone up that day. That is why you need protection of option and not that of stop loss order. I will post more on this type of trade more in the future. Clearly SSO, SDS and Cash are not enough if you want protection in your portfolio.

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