Tuesday, March 10, 2009

What happened today?

I g0t kicked out of the market and my order to fill SDS at the open with a limit on previous day's close was not executed. I really got lucky today. I also got kicked out of the other SDS shares at the open with a loss of around 4%. The total portfolio now is in cash. The question now is what to do next? I think it is very hard to participate in counter trend rallies - they are usually fast and furious. I am going to place limit order to buy SDS at $85 at the open tomorrow, i.e. still planning to play on the short side if the market gets ahead of itself. Why 85? Right now SDS is at 101 and it has a support around 85. Another reason is that bear market rallies last for 10 to 20%. I will see if my order gets filled. Then I will place a loss limiting sell order about 10% lower, which would correspond to 5% on the SP500. Do I believe in these pseudo rules? No, but I need a reasonable guess for placing a limit order and these rules seem to be best that I could find. I will be adjusting my thinking based on volume on the expected follow through tomorrow. Meanwhile I am totally confused from the market. Vikram Pandit is a liar - he told people only 1/2 of the story and everyone got excited. Someone said today that I have $50 million dollars in the bank excpet for the part that I also owe $60 million dollars to the bank. So, if I tell you I have 50 million dollars in the bank is no excuse for celebration. Thats pretty much what Vikram did today and all the shorts got blown out of water. I don't know why shorts are so nervous and decided to get the hell out at any cost. The only other reason is that according to some stupid stochastic indicators market was "oversold" but those indicators are not very helpful since no one can make any money following them. I hate losing 4% in a day. C'est la vie.

1 comment:

  1. Not bad, your overall return is still positive. That 4% loss is a technical loss.

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