Friday, March 27, 2009

No conviction for the short side or the long side


Although I had suspicion yesterday that number of bulls in the market willing to play the market at this level had decreased I didn't make any money off this suspicion. Such is life! Ok, so what should we do now? Volume was too low today for me to call that the upside is over although upside seems to be limited. I will be lightening up my position with any rally now. From the actions of the last few days it appears that further upside potential is limited and not worth the risk. The downside is also limited because US govt has already guaranteed positive returns to the bond holders. Unless some major thing like some country in Europe goes bankrupt I don't see much movement in the market. There is a lot of noise at this livel. Basically 800 on SP500 is the bottom of 2002 bottom and we are just hanging there for roughly 5 months now. This is what is called churning at or near the bottom trying to get a foothold. Short-term traders like me will be clobered getting whipsawed in this market for the next 2-3 months (maybe even longer, maybe years) when it will become clear whether we go another leg down or we move up from here. We just have to keep our eyes open and try to get out of the market if it goes below 50-day MA or take a few chips off the table if it rallies at a lackluster volume. If the market goes up on Monday, then I will sell 1/2 my position in the rally, other wise I will get out at the open.

2 comments:

  1. Do you think this rally is somewhat similar to the one in last July? A size up, of course.

    I sort of feel that the market will be zig-zaging for at least a few weeks until some big news (good or bad) comes out.

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  2. I don't know whether it is similar or different than the rally last July. I don't spend time thinking these things because you cannot make any money by thinking about similarities between two different times. Just look at what is happening now. I don't expect or anticipate anything. I just react to what other people in the market place are doing,just like you would do when you go to an auction.

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