Update

Market was volatile today without much movement in VIX. But if you just looked at the opening and closing prices of SP500 you would think not much happened - in the candlestick chart Koji is easy to see. But Koji hides the fact that market was initially up (actually gapped up in the open) and then we went down considerably but in the last hour we had what looked like tape painting. I believe the last hour buying was simply short covering since there was not as much volume as I would have liked and probably a lot of traders do not trust the government and are nervous holding the short position throug the weekend. I remain cautious on either direction of the market just like the Koji pattern on the chart. Therefore, I will leave my portfolio in the position of 1/2 cash and 1/2 on the short side which has a stop loss order already in place. My guess is that next week we might see a bid for the market since the chattering class is getting loud and the Senate will be voting on the spending on Tuesday which will be spun by some folks to get a bid going. If you look at the SP500 long term chart there is some support around 660 and we kind of couldn't break through that level today. Even that will be used as an excuse of "why the market has bottomed." I will see if it is worth participating in this short-term counter trend rally next week. I will like to see the situation on Monday before I take the position on the long side. I am traveling on Monday and will not have time to check the market during the day time but will try to catch up on the scene in the evening.